The slowdown in hiring could be a warning sign that the region may in for a long haul to return to pre-coronavirus employment levels.
But some economic development leaders say one month of labor data is no reason to panic, and the regional economy was doing very well before the pandemic hit and continues to have underlying strength.
“I am not worried about one month’s numbers, especially coming out of pandemic, because from a Dayton standpoint we are positioned very well,” said Jeff Hoagland, president and CEO of the Dayton Development Coalition.
Payrolls in the Dayton metro area grew 0.2% last month, which was down from 0.8% growth in July and 3.6% in June, according to preliminary bureau data. The metro area includes Montgomery, Miami and Greene counties.
Local employment saw a stunning 11.6% drop in April, or 45,200 jobs, because of the statewide stay-at-home order and business closures and layoffs related to the pandemic.
The bounce-back started in May, when employers created 8,000 jobs (+2.3% growth), and it accelerated in June (+3.6% growth).
But the job market lost steam in July, and that month’s payroll growth was not as strong as originally reported.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its July labor estimates for the Dayton metro area, and gains were revised down from 5,400 jobs (+1.5% growth) to 3,000 jobs (+0.8%).
Also, the Dayton region’s job growth last month was bested by all the other metro areas in the state, except for Lima and Youngstown. The Dayton region has recouped less than 53% of the 47,000 jobs lost in March and April.
U.S. job losses from the coronavirus-related downturn were sharp, deep and especially hurt some low-wage sectors of the economy, notably the leisure and hospitality industry, said Elise Gould, a senior economist with the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.
With a national pullback in hiring, it could take years to return to the pre-pandemic labor market, Gould said, and the loss of pandemic-related financial assistance including the extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits means jobs will return more slowly.
Some economists predict the loss of the enhanced benefits will result in jobless Ohioans cutting back on consumer spending, which may lead to additional layoffs and reduced sales and business activities.
“It is clear that the pain is nowhere near over for millions of workers and their families across the country,” Gould said.
But Hoagland, with the Dayton Development Coalition, said he is very optimistic that the strong job and economic growth that preceded the coronavirus outbreak will return.
2020 looked like it would be a record year for economic development in the region, based on all of the projects in the pipeline, Hoagland said.
A once-in-a-century pandemic obviously tripped up many plans, but Hoagland said projects and investments may have been delayed because of the crisis, but they haven’t been cancelled.
“Our foundation is solid,” he said. “I am very optimistic for what the future holds for Dayton because of the projects I see the region working on, and those haven’t even come onto the landscape yet.”
He said the region bounced back from previous downturns and crashes and managed to diversify its industrial mix and workforce, which will help the local economy recover from this challenging period.
Hoagland said the coalition has had more than 600 calls with businesses and employers to check in and see how they are doing. He said the coalition also has had 200 business retention visits with companies.
Businesses are feeling good about
New projects that have been announced and that are in the works are likely to lead to hundreds of millions of dollars in investment and bring thousands of jobs to the region, but they may not be completed until next year or later, Hoagland said.
Winsupply recently announced it is building a new innovation center in Moraine.
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